Last week I became a member of the Flat Earth Society….or so says my President. He was discussing the urgent need to take action on global climate change.
Come on Mr. President, it’s recycled data. The IPCC President used that one in 2002. Al Gore has linked skeptics to people that thought the moon landings were faked. And in MR. Gore’s film, An Inconvenient Truth, skeptics were equated to the smoking lobby…complete with slides of old magazine advertisements of doctors recommending smoking. The climate change boogie men have been using this tactic since the 1980’s. When challenged attack the creditability of your opponent.
It helps to have a thick skin if you going to question the conventional wisdom of the day.
Don’t get me wrong. I think the world is a bit warmer than it otherwise would be because of man caused global warming gases. I simply think the ecosystem is so complex and has so much natural climate variation that it is impossible for anyone to KNOW how much of the recent warming in natural climate variation and how much is man caused. Everybody is guessing. And the recognized experts (the IPCC) have….at least so far….been dead wrong as this chart demonstrates:
This chart is from a draft of AR5 (the 5th Climate Assessment) that has been making the rounds at various skeptic sites. AR5 will be published in 2014. Every few years the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issues a climate synopses report. The first one (FAR) was published in 1992. The reports take a long time to write, so the data is usually about 2 years old when published.
Let’s look at the AR4 data. The Forth Assessment (AR4) was prepared in 2005 and published in the fall of 2007. The orange color as depicted on the chart is the probable range of temperatures the IPCC anticipated. Every year since 2005 has been low. The data in the chart stops in 2011 because the draft was being prepared in 2012. 2011 was a cool year by 21st century standard. 2012 was above 2011 but just barely,and so far 2013 has been a bit cooler than either 2011 or 2012. Every year since 2005 has been cooler than the IPCC predicted and every year since 2011 has been so cool as to be below the minimum range prediction made by the IPCC in 2007.
The First Assessment (FAR) was prepared in 1990. Every year except 1998 has been lower than the IPCC predicted. If there is one pattern that has emerged….it is that the IPCC has been wrong in their predictions. They have tended to be wild high. I’m not one of those people that thinks I know how to calculate the right temperature for any given time. I’d argue that anybody that tries is guessing…..and the IPCC has ….so far…been a lousy guesser.
And a note to Mr. Obama….just because everybody you associate with agrees with you does not mean you are right.
I’m all for making a reasonable effort to limit our carbon footprint, but I question his assertion that there is no time to critically evaluate the science. The track record of the experts suggests that they are guessing….and guessing badly.
Three quotations out of the past sum up my position on this issue.
Sinclair Lewis is credited with the following:
It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.
Both Mark Twain and Will Rogers made similar statements that go something like this:
It’s not what we don’t know that gets us into trouble. it’s what we know for sure that just ain’t so.
Another Will Rogers quotation:
Be thankful we’re not getting the government we’re paying for.